Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
